M. Sue Davis

Abstract

For many years various types of forecast models have reportedly been used in hospital foodservice systems to estimate the patient census level or meal demand for menu items. None of these reports have dealt with the application of forecast models in a hospital cafeteria setting. The purpose of this study was to test selected forecast models in a hospital setting to determine the one that most accurately predicted the number of customers utilizing the cafeteria on a particular day, and the number of servings of a specific food item that was utilized at selected meals. Historical data was used to fit three Forecast models—Simple Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing and Adaptive Exponential Smoothing—for actual use. When results of these models were evaluated, an Analysis of Variance test showed no significant difference between forecasting accuracy. Because it is a less complex model to use. Simple Moving Average was chosen to forecast for actual entrée demand. Graphing forecasts from Simple Moving Average against actual demand resulted in very similar curves indicating that managers, with no forecasting system or a system having a high degree of error, might benefit from the use of any of the models evaluated.

Department

Nutrition

First Advisor

Bertrum C. Connell

Second Advisor

Kathleen Zolber

Third Advisor

Kenneth I. Burke

Fourth Advisor

Gerald Shavlik

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Degree Level

M.S.

Year Degree Awarded

1985

Date (Title Page)

9-1985

Language

English

Library of Congress/MESH Subject Headings

Food Service; Hospital

Type

Dissertation

Page Count

ii; 24

Digital Format

PDF

Digital Publisher

Loma Linda University Libraries

Usage Rights

This title appears here courtesy of the author, who has granted Loma Linda University a limited, non-exclusive right to make this publication available to the public. The author retains all other copyrights.

Collection

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Collection Website

http://scholarsrepository.llu.edu/etd/

Repository

Loma Linda University. Del E. Webb Memorial Library. University Archives

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