Abstract

Inland Counties Comprehensive Health Planning Council wished to estimate the psychiatric bed needs by type (such as state hospitals, board and care homes, etc.) in San Bernardino County from the distributions of patient arrivals and of lengths of stay. A statistical description of the system during 1973 was considered the first step toward estimating future bed needs. A computer simulation model using IBM's programming language General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS) was developed and was found to be unsatisfactory.

Theorems were then developed for a statistical model, seeking to predict future bed needs. The most convenient of these theorems states that under appropriate circumstances the average occupancy of a facility will be approximately equal to the product of (1) the average number of admissions per day and (2) the average length of stay in days. Generalizations of this theorem and the corresponding theorem for the variance of the number of occupants generated a model which predicted fairly accurately the occupancy of Ward B of San Bernardino County Hospital during the first six months of 1973. This statistical model is easily adaptable for changing conditions such as varying lengths of stay, decrease or increase in admissions, or changes in proportions of diagnoses.

Department

Mathematical Sciences

School

Graduate School

First Advisor

Grenith J. Zimmerman

Second Advisor

Ivan R. Neilsen

Third Advisor

Jan W. Kuzma

Fourth Advisor

Paul Y. Yahiku

Fifth Advisor

Jere E. Chrispens

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Degree Level

M.S.

Year Degree Awarded

1974

Date (Title Page)

12-1974

Language

English

Library of Congress/MESH Subject Headings

Hospital Bed Capacity; Mental Health Services -- California

Type

Thesis

Page Count

vii; 48

Digital Format

PDF

Digital Publisher

Loma Linda University Libraries

Usage Rights

This title appears here courtesy of the author, who has granted Loma Linda University a limited, non-exclusive right to make this publication available to the public. The author retains all other copyrights.

Collection

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Collection Website

http://scholarsrepository.llu.edu/etd/

Repository

Loma Linda University. Del E. Webb Memorial Library. University Archives

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